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Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2021 9:39:56 GMT -5
SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. The managers are doing what I do which is using high performers + switching. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk/reward easily beat VBINX+VWIAX As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9. VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=15.1%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7. VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=7.6%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3. When you look at their ( site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different  IOFIX=special securitized NHYIX=HY Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc Pimco Govt Mm Instl BDKNX=special securitized Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%) CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized Below is how their portfolio looked as of 12/31/2020. The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018. So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.Attachments:
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Post by stalker on Jan 16, 2021 11:03:04 GMT -5
49% leveraged.
One day this fund will implode.
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Post by fred495 on Jan 16, 2021 15:57:42 GMT -5
49% leveraged. One day this fund will implode.
Maybe, but it held up surprisingly well during the recent March market crash. As FD noted, its peak to trough loss was only 2%.
And, looking at monthly total return data since 2016, SVARX's highest loss was 1.3% in May of 2019.
Enviable risk/reward profile. Is FD a sub-advisor to the fund? (smile)
Fred
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Post by pn on Jan 16, 2021 16:32:28 GMT -5
Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses: 2.95%
I didn’t see a breakdown for the ER expenses on their website.
The last time we had a discussion on this, my recollection is that ERs for Fund of Funds include the ERs for the underlying funds and also include leverage expenses. So if these two types of expenses are included in the 2.95% it might not be as bad as it first appears.
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Post by prospero on Jan 16, 2021 17:14:28 GMT -5
From Fidelity's website, the first portfolio listed component of SVARX is:
"FIGXX Fidelity® Inv MM Fds Government I 40.83%"
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Post by stalker on Jan 16, 2021 18:14:53 GMT -5
49% leveraged. One day this fund will implode.
Maybe, but it held up surprisingly well during the recent March market crash. As FD noted, its peak to trough loss was only 2%.
And, looking at monthly total return data since 2016, SVARX's highest loss was 1.3% in May of 2019.
Fred
Fred, Maybe it’s “different” in the near future? It good that the fund handled the March crash but you will have to see how the fund will handle increase in interest rates in the future which will increase leverage costs. Look at the recent spike in the 10 year. If that continues and if there are any large redemptions on a small fund, it will negatively impact the fund. Its not my “call” but it’s something people need to consider then always looking at past performance. Pn, 49% leverage on ANY investment is extremely concerning. This fact is “hidden” on the fund’s fact sheet. Another thing to consider is why is the mutual fund company “hiding” the fact they are a “fund of funds”, not showing what exactly they are invested in (top 10 investments), or clearly showing their leverage on the fund fact sheets or on their own website. Instead, you have to look it up on M* or Fidelity. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2021 20:09:18 GMT -5
From Fidelity's website, the first portfolio listed component of SVARX is: "FIGXX Fidelity® Inv MM Fds Government I 40.83%" I doubt this fund is at 40% MM. M* data (see below) is from 9/30/2020( link). M* also mentioned other long holdings=15, short=3. I'm just guessing that by other it means not your typical holdings of single bonds because it's 18 funds. I'm also not sure how much, and often they use the leverage and how effective it is. If leverage was so huge you would see it in the daily performance and interest rates used to be much higher several years ago and the fund still did well. My own results show competitive performance with much lower volatility and I don't use any leverage. Bottom line: the results are very good no matter the ER or what anybody says. Of course, there are no guarantees in any investment and nobody claimed it. The managers potentially may make huge mistakes in the future just as I may Attachments:
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Post by albie on Jan 16, 2021 20:11:45 GMT -5
SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. The managers are doing what I do which is using high performers + switching. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk/reward easily beat VBINX+VWIAX As of 1/15/2020:
SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9. VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7. VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3. When you look at their ( site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different IOFIX=special securitized NHYIX=HY Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc Pimco Govt Mm Instl BDKNX=special securitized Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%) CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized Below is how their portfolio looked as of 12/31/2020. The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018. So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.Your One Year TRs for VBINX and VBIAX are incorrect. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2021 21:01:28 GMT -5
albie, thanks, I fixed it. We can delete both posts.
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Post by stalker on Jan 16, 2021 21:31:52 GMT -5
From Fidelity's website, the first portfolio listed component of SVARX is: "FIGXX Fidelity® Inv MM Fds Government I 40.83%" I doubt this fund is at 40% MM. M* data (see below) is from 9/30/2020( link). M* also mentioned other long holdings=15, short=3. I'm just guessing that by other it means not your typical holdings of single bonds because it's 18 funds. I'm also not sure how much, and often they use the leverage and how effective it is. If leverage was so huge you would see it in the daily performance and interest rates used to be much higher several years ago and the fund still did well. Tons of leverage. And it does have 40% in MM for collateral for its swaps and its leverage. Attachments:
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Post by fred495 on Jan 16, 2021 22:32:23 GMT -5
stalker said" "Another thing to consider is why is the mutual fund company “hiding” the fact they are a “fund of funds [...] Instead, you have to look it up on M* or Fidelity."
Sorry, but the prospectus for SVARX, under Principal Investment Strategies, clearly states that "The Fund invests in a diversified portfolio of primarily income-producing fixed income securities. The sub-adviser does not select individual bonds or other fixed income securities but instead, invests the Fund’s assets in open-end investment companies (“mutual funds”) and exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) that each invest primarily in fixed rate or floating rate fixed income securities."
Fred
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Post by stalker on Jan 16, 2021 22:58:56 GMT -5
Unfortunately, this information is not on any of their webpages and you can’t even view/download the funds prospectus (the verbiage you quoted) from their own website and you can’t see what positions the fund holds in it either. This information should be easily accessible from their website like any other MF company provides.
Also, can you please comment on what will happen when interest rates rise and what impact it will have on this overly leveraged fund?
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Post by perrywinkle on Jan 17, 2021 0:32:04 GMT -5
The prospectus was last updated 8/2020 while the annual report is as of 9/30/2020 and published 11/2020.
Detailed holdings as of 12/31/2020 have not been filed with SEC yet as latest portfolio report at SEC is the 9/30/2020 data.
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Post by Old_Skeet on Jan 17, 2021 3:07:55 GMT -5
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Post by stalker on Jan 17, 2021 6:51:30 GMT -5
Looks like I stand corrected. I was looking at the specific fund section (Low Volatility Fund) of the website which only had the fund fact sheet, strategy focus doc and “To obtain a prospectus, please call Gemini Fund Services at 855-582-8006.” Very odd web design. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 17, 2021 9:16:17 GMT -5
Fred, the same manager, Ralph Doudera, also runs HFSAX/SFHYX which is the fund I told you on another site, but the min is 1 million for HFSAX at Schwab and the other is only for institutional customers. I can still buy SVARX at $5000 min + $49.95 fee, but I can't buy the Ins SVASX, Schwab doesn't recognize it. 3 years performance/SD...HFSAX 14.5/7.6...SPY 14.1/18.7 ============== I found the semi-annual report for SVARX( link) from 3/31/2020 and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage). This verifies my thoughts, there is no way to know how long and how high they used the leverage. |
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Post by stalker on Jan 17, 2021 11:30:29 GMT -5
I found the semi-annual report for SVARX( link) from 3/31/2020 and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage). This verifies my thoughts, there is no way to know how long and how high they used the leverage.Very obvious they were using leverage at that point of time too. No way a fund can be sitting on 64% cash without it being used as collateral for their swaps. How TF do you think 64% cash is going to produced the returns this fund did for the year? |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 17, 2021 13:05:08 GMT -5
I found the semi-annual report for SVARX( link) from 3/31/2020 and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage). This verifies my thoughts, there is no way to know how long and how high they used the leverage.Very obvious they were using leverage at that point of time too. No way a fund can be sitting on 64% cash without it being used as collateral for their swaps. How TF do you think 64% cash is going to produced the returns this fund did for the year? I do trade stuff - options, CEFs, ETFs but not active funds. If others want to trade active funds, I don't object to it but want funds to enforce fees and trading restrictions strictly. I don't have anything to add to equity-like bond funds being discussed except that I have plenty of direct equity exposure and that the Fed is forcing people to go out on credit risks. |
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Post by gary1952 on Jan 17, 2021 16:48:40 GMT -5
I do trade stuff - options, CEFs, ETFs but not active funds. If others want to trade active funds, I don't object to it but want funds to enforce fees and trading restrictions strictly. I don't have anything to add to equity-like bond funds being discussed except that I have plenty of direct equity exposure and that the Fed is forcing people to go out on credit risks. Yours is a valid perspective too. The particular fund being discussed, SVARX, is obviously trading OEFs with a 389% turnover. On the other hand many don't like bond ETFs because of the volatility. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2021 17:56:20 GMT -5
I do trade stuff - options, CEFs, ETFs but not active funds. If others want to trade active funds, I don't object to it but want funds to enforce fees and trading restrictions strictly. I don't have anything to add to equity-like bond funds being discussed except that I have plenty of direct equity exposure and that the Fed is forcing people to go out on credit risks. Yours is a valid perspective too. The particular fund being discussed, SVARX, is obviously trading OEFs with a 389% turnover. On the other hand many don't like bond ETFs because of the volatility. Not sure how active they trade some of their major holdings but as you allude to a high turnover. I was recently permanently banned in one of my accounts by Alphacentric (IOFIX). A friend was recently permanently banned by BDKAX/BDKNX. Nuveen will put active traders on a months long timeout. Have also received overtrading warnings from Eaton Vance. I would doubt SVARX has any special arrangements with the fund companies as they abhor traders of their funds, no exceptions. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2021 3:33:12 GMT -5
Can’t help myself . Jump in rates . SVARX .... up 0.16%.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 18, 2021 16:36:24 GMT -5
SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. The managers are doing what I do which is using high performers + switching. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk/reward easily beat VBINX+VWIAX As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9. VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=15.1%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7. VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=7.6%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3. When you look at their ( site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different IOFIX=special securitized NHYIX=HY Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc Pimco Govt Mm Instl BDKNX=special securitized Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%) CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized Below is how their portfolio looked as of 12/31/2020. The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018. So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.When I introduced SVARX on 01-16-2021, the numbers looked pretty good. Looking YTD, performance = 3.93%...the numbers are just OK. I beat it by 3+ times. Maybe I can open a fund of funds and charge "only" 2.5% instead of 3%. That means about 1% guesstimation after paying for these funds ER and other expenses. All I need from you guys is to invest 200 million, so I can make "just" 2 million for myself. Below is YTD chart for SVARX and my money at Schwab. Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2021 18:39:51 GMT -5
SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. The managers are doing what I do which is using high performers + switching. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk/reward easily beat VBINX+VWIAX As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9. VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=15.1%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7. VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=7.6%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3. When you look at their ( site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different IOFIX=special securitized NHYIX=HY Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc Pimco Govt Mm Instl BDKNX=special securitized Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%) CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized Below is how their portfolio looked as of 12/31/2020. The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018. So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.When I introduced SVARX on 01-16-2021, the numbers looked pretty good. Looking YTD, performance = 3.93%...the numbers are just OK. I beat it by 3+ times. Maybe I can open a fund of funds and charge "only" 2.5% instead of 3%. That means about 1% guesstimation after paying for these funds ER and other expenses. All I need from you guys is to invest 200 million, so I can make "just" 2 million for myself. Below is YTD chart for SVARX and my money at Schwab. I suggest starting a SPAC. I'm sure Norbert would be interested...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 0:32:50 GMT -5
FD1000"When I introduced SVARX on 01-16-2021, the numbers looked pretty good." Are you saying that the fund's short term performance history wasn't predictive of its future performance? I'm shocked! ----- "Looking YTD, performance = 3.93%...the numbers are just OK. I beat it by 3+ times." So, you almost managed to beat VBINX ytd? That's impressive. You're obviously very proud and with good reason. Have you considered publishing an investing newsletter? Or, selling your trading system to Ray Dalio?
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 19, 2021 9:44:37 GMT -5
FD1000 "When I introduced SVARX on 01-16-2021, the numbers looked pretty good." Are you saying that the fund's short term performance history wasn't predictive of its future performance? I'm shocked! ----- "Looking YTD, performance = 3.93%...the numbers are just OK. I beat it by 3+ times." So, you almost managed to beat VBINX ytd? That's impressive. You're obviously very proud and with good reason. Have you considered publishing an investing newsletter? Or, selling your trading system to Ray Dalio? Yep, it is impressive. It actually got better because risk-adjusted got better. Performance is up + SD is down FOR 3 YEARS. 3 years: performance=14.3%...SD=2.22...Sharp Ratio>5Using PV ( link)and comparing to the above....PIMIX(mostly bonds)...VWIAX (about 40/60)...Diversified portfolio 50/50 (30% SPY + 20% VXUS(international) + 25% PIMIX + 25% BND) and you get the following Fund...performance...SD...SharpPIMIX......5.55%........5.76...0.79 VWIAX.....10.6%........7.5....1.25 50/50......11.9%........9.9....1.09 As you can see, the above is far from my portfolio per risk-adjusted performance, which is important to most retirees.
How I did it 1) Concentration in just 2-3 funds (Buffett: Diversification is protection against ignorance) 2) Only investing in the best funds at any given time. 3) Investing at 99+% at 95% of the time. Be in cash only 5% when market risk is really extreme. Missing the worse days is much better than the other options ( link) 4) The art of trading. See the momentum and switch but not too often. 5) Never invest based on predictions. Tune out all the noise and let markets tell you what to do. 6) My portfolio performance comes from over 90% in bonds and the rest in riskier stuff. I hardly did any trading in 2021 and performance came from 95% bonds. Bring on the sarcasm. |
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Post by Sara on Nov 19, 2021 10:20:03 GMT -5
FD1000 "When I introduced SVARX on 01-16-2021, the numbers looked pretty good." Are you saying that the fund's short term performance history wasn't predictive of its future performance? I'm shocked! ----- "Looking YTD, performance = 3.93%...the numbers are just OK. I beat it by 3+ times." So, you almost managed to beat VBINX ytd? That's impressive. You're obviously very proud and with good reason. Have you considered publishing an investing newsletter? Or, selling your trading system to Ray Dalio? Yep, it is impressive. It actually got better because risk-adjusted got better. Performance is up + SD is down FOR 3 YEARS. 3 years: performance=14.3%...SD=2.22...Sharp Ratio>5Using PV ( link)and comparing to the above....PIMIX(mostly bonds)...VWIAX (about 40/60)...Diversified portfolio 50/50 (30% SPY + 20% VXUS(international) + 25% PIMIX + 25% BND) and you get the following Fund...performance...SD...SharpPIMIX......5.55%........5.76...0.79 VWIAX.....10.6%........7.5....1.25 50/50......11.9%........9.9....1.09 As you can see, the above is far from my portfolio per risk-adjusted performance, which is important to most retirees.
How I did it 1) Concentration in just 2-3 funds (Buffett: Diversification is protection against ignorance) 2) Only investing in the best funds at any given time. 3) Investing at 99+% at 95% of the time. Be in cash only 5% when market risk is really extreme. Missing the worse days is much better than the other options ( link) 4) The art of trading. See the momentum and switch but not too often. 5) Never invest based on predictions. Tune out all the noise and let markets tell you what to do. 6) My portfolio performance comes from over 90% in bonds and the rest in riskier stuff. I hardly did any trading in 2021 and performance came from 95% bonds. Bring on the sarcasm.FD - no one really knows who does what on a forum like this. It does sound like you are bragging. Fine, but I find it odd for anyone to do this. And it isn't verifiable - for any of us. So what is the point? Also, I go back to you advising BND and BIV to KISS at the start of the year. If I'm Joe, and you are getting great returns for doing something you didn't recommend, I'm confused. What should Joe do now? Stay in BND and BIV or move to SVARX?What should be the expected return of his bond portfolio for the next 10 years? |
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Post by Poorfolio on Nov 19, 2021 11:12:39 GMT -5
FD has just a couple of funds and trades, but not too often. Just imagine the concentration, the enormous amount in one single trade and if you got the guts to do it. That's why he'll always be my hero.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 13:29:29 GMT -5
FD seems to be doing just fine, good for him. So do many others, good for them as well. Good investing...
Wrt SVARX, looks like another flavor-of-the-month fund.
I should add: many are here to discuss forward looking investments. Thus, saying that the SP500 returned this much but I did "better" but I won't tell you how is meaningless.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2021 5:03:54 GMT -5
It's been pretty hard not to do well in this market! But, congrats to us all. I just don't grasp people's need for praise and attention from anonymous crowds. Remember Rosie Ruiz, who "won" the Boston marathon in 1980? What kind of person does stuff like that?  |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 20, 2021 11:29:31 GMT -5
Sara: FD - no one really knows who does what on a forum like this. It does sound like you are bragging. Fine, but I find it odd for anyone to do this. And it isn't verifiable - for any of us. So what is the point? Also, I go back to you advising BND and BIV to KISS at the start of the year. If I'm Joe, and you are getting great returns for doing something you didn't recommend, I'm confused. What should Joe do now? Stay in BND and BIV or move to SVARX?What should be the expected return of his bond portfolio for the next 10 years? FD: I never told anybody to do what I do. I didn't advise doing anything. I posted my ideas. You never want or care to discuss average Joe so why start now. No confusion at all. Expected return? I have no idea but Seigel knows everything. I'm sure I will make money in bonds, YTD has been one of the best if you were in the right fund. Bragging? why not? I have been told that I will never make it in bonds and returns will be very low. I proved I can make a lot more. I have read that timing, momentum and others can't be done but it worked very well for me over 20 years using stocks and bonds. See ( link). I see only 2 choices in investment. If you care about volatility, look for the best risk-adjusted performance, this is where I am since 2000. If you don't care about volatility, performance is the only thing that matters. =========== Newzg: many are here to discuss forward looking investments. FD: I have done the same with bonds and stocks based mostly on current market conditions. I don't need to guess or predict, the markets tell me what to do as they have done over 20 years. It's a "simple" concept. =========== Norbert: It's been pretty hard not to do well in this market FD: Norbert never failed to be off topic. Stocks have done great YTD but how many investors do you know who made over 12% in bond OEFs YTD? What % of retirees would prefer to have my portfolio risk-adjusted performance?
PCI, managed by the best team in the world, with 44% leveraged, made in 3 years 9.5% annually with SD=17.9...just another reference. |
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